Thursday, December 2, 2010

Cautious about the Euro : etf FXE

 The  etf     FXE  which  tracks   the  EURO  is  diverging   away the   uptrend .   Let's  understand what it  means.


Here's the daily view of the Euro.
The Euro has broken down it's uptrend line.
Closed below it's 200 EMA
Showing negative Divergence ( Lower highs and lower lows of MACD )

  • This likely break of downtrend is looking more prominent in the weekly view of FXE 
  • Prices  have   dipped   below   the  Moving  average   confluence  region of   133.   Until  prices   close  above this  area of  133 on a  weekly  basis   this   is  to be  assumed    as  start  of  downtrend  or  just  sideways
  • Lower  euro  prices translated   into  Higher  value of  Dollar
  •    Higher  Dollar   makes  exports     expensive   and hence is  bad  for the company  and   also for   its  stock price.
  • Conclusion   :        lower   Euro translates  to either  sideways   or   downtrend of stock market .So   Cautious  before  you  go  long  on  the  market  now  ...

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